Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 12.853960 14.994004 17.329847 20.062095 23.163414 26.567164 30.578283
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 9.349625 12.222501 15.669899 20.080511 25.539308 32.037134 40.316721
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.827357 9.881652 13.865553 19.370722 26.697182 36.018865 48.666837
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.175276 8.209742 12.472199 18.770576 27.687740 39.683576 56.823677
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.210355 7.245530 11.795190 18.917305 29.542738 44.515785 66.838353
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.391497 6.306942 10.952786 18.624738 30.630304 48.269670 75.579819
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.004087 5.972168 10.954821 19.560510 33.570509 54.870644 88.873740
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.588178 5.496017 10.632640 19.896814 35.558469 60.150301 100.548850
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.206572 5.000171 10.186393 19.938353 37.027436 64.689278 111.364841
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.892730 4.568049 9.777537 19.968780 38.440051 69.197270 122.395365
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.797954 4.564842 10.161503 21.457210 42.476498 78.252252 141.319783
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.661818 4.444212 10.294229 22.478439 45.755559 86.245649 158.977679
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.508778 4.265955 10.306192 23.309778 48.843699 94.271983 177.469396
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.285851 3.875042 9.818028 23.096367 49.978247 99.009799 190.734025
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.050317 3.394162 9.052736 22.208541 49.718655 101.226459 199.745430
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.866958 3.001934 8.417221 21.500656 49.719964 103.884015 209.674245
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.760583 2.797576 8.189975 21.653881 51.466892 109.899202 226.043362
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.645872 2.536242 7.775078 21.320152 52.153190 113.919350 238.945718
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.607266 2.504312 7.943287 22.371055 55.881719 124.082995 263.960104
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.545503 2.378634 7.839824 22.748482 58.160664 131.505200 284.122928
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.479559 2.219047 7.615145 22.794919 59.699153 137.527628 301.900461
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.421796 2.071314 7.397566 22.829025 61.205086 143.567461 320.028585
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.417176 2.127296 7.790101 24.501172 66.647857 158.086311 355.729605